Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.062722 2.186050 2.315857 2.463172 2.626343 2.802264 3.007247
2025-09-21 1.854725 2.020962 2.204206 2.422922 2.679225 2.973075 3.339970
2025-09-28 1.715138 1.902555 2.115479 2.378414 2.698902 3.083104 3.588649
2025-10-05 1.652281 1.861510 2.105611 2.416422 2.809312 3.300804 3.982069
2025-10-12 1.602360 1.829190 2.099912 2.453980 2.916402 3.518070 4.394664
2025-10-19 1.557239 1.797974 2.091028 2.483513 3.011488 3.724036 4.813230
2025-10-26 1.500585 1.748171 2.054348 2.472361 3.048542 3.850520 5.128783
2025-11-02 1.449693 1.702295 2.019073 2.459092 3.079266 3.967703 5.441841
2025-11-09 1.396738 1.650862 1.973268 2.427647 3.080330 4.039012 5.687734
2025-11-16 1.347777 1.602208 1.928343 2.393988 3.074468 4.097299 5.916940
2025-11-23 1.316262 1.574771 1.909948 2.395544 3.119220 4.236419 6.305548
2025-11-30 1.293402 1.557554 1.904103 2.413842 3.189327 4.421302 6.806733
2025-12-07 1.252460 1.515287 1.863012 2.380118 3.178772 4.474903 7.071374
2025-12-14 1.212638 1.473187 1.820497 2.342091 3.158782 4.510439 7.306197
2025-12-21 1.174069 1.431460 1.776811 2.299958 3.129055 4.525569 7.499926
2025-12-28 1.163262 1.427131 1.785223 2.335939 3.227679 4.778083 8.264686
2026-01-04 1.152960 1.422940 1.793359 2.371477 3.327642 5.044065 9.130285
2026-01-11 1.140922 1.415780 1.796706 2.399408 3.416337 5.298878 10.043478
2026-01-18 1.118360 1.393050 1.776425 2.388862 3.437005 5.421064 10.639858
2026-01-25 1.096433 1.370541 1.755610 2.376312 3.452956 5.534985 11.247428
2026-02-01 1.070826 1.342084 1.725035 2.346563 3.435796 5.577426 11.654368
2026-02-08 1.045835 1.313881 1.693980 2.314703 3.412752 5.604893 12.024819
2026-02-15 1.030939 1.299784 1.683565 2.316177 3.451302 5.771376 12.914969